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Cuba’s Multidimensional Crisis
The Cuban Revolution is facing its worst economic and social crisis since its victory in 1959, affecting every sector and economic sphere. Unlike the “Special Period” of the 1990s—triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union—the current situation represents a multidimensional crisis for Cuba, surpassing even those levels of hardship, plunging the country into a recession with no immediate prospects for recovery.
- Energy Crisis: Daily blackouts (lasting up to 12 hours or more in some provinces) reflect the deterioration of the electrical infrastructure, which relies on outdated power plants and imported fuel. Lack of investment and sanctions limiting access to spare parts worsen the issue.
- Tourism Collapse: Key sectors like tourism—which once contributed 10% of GDP—have crumbled. Hotel occupancy rates barely reach 30%, according to internal reports, due to poor management, blackouts, water shortages, and rising public insecurity, once a point of pride for the island. Major source countries like Canada, Russia, and Spain have drastically reduced flights.
- Fragmented Economy: The government has lost effective control over the economy. Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) dominate the domestic market but operate in a hyperinflationary environment: prices of basic goods have risen up to 300% since 2021, while the official minimum wage is less than $10 per month.
Social Polarization
Cuba’s society is increasingly polarizing due to the multifaceted crisis it faces. Here are some growing class divisions:
- New Elite: Entrepreneurs linked to tourism, exporters, or those operating in foreign currencies (USD or EUR).
- Emerging Middle Class: MSME owners (restaurants, tech ventures) with access to remittances.
- Most Vulnerable Group: 60% of the population, including retirees (with pensions of $5/month) and state workers, who rely on rationing or the black market.
The Real Impact of the U.S. Embargo
While the Cuban government blames the embargo for the entire crisis, it is a key factor—but not the only one. Its concrete effects include:
- Healthcare Sector:
- Medications: Companies like Novartis (2020) and Pfizer (2021) canceled sales to Cuba due to U.S. legal pressure, despite humanitarian exemptions.
- Medical Equipment: 80% of Cuba’s ventilators depend on parts made in the U.S., according to Havana hospital reports (2023).
- Pandemic Response: Donations of syringes and COVID-19 tests were delayed due to fear of sanctions.
- Agriculture and Food Supply:
- Fertilizers and Feed: Agricultural losses exceed $592 million annually (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022). Cuba imports food from Asia (at prices 40% higher) instead of from the U.S., just 150 km away.
- Transport: Restrictions on ships with Cuban crews raise logistical costs.
- Financial Isolation:
- Credit Access: Cuba cannot obtain loans from the IMF or World Bank due to indirect U.S. vetoes.
- Bank Fines: ING (Netherlands) paid $619 million in 2019 for operating with Cuba.
Is the Embargo the Only Cause?
Internal factors also explain Cuba’s multidimensional distress and crisis:
- State Inefficiency: Government monopolies over key sectors (like the sugar industry) have led to historically low production. Of 161 mills once active during harvest season, fewer than 20 are currently operating.
- Corruption: As a consequence of the crisis and recent pressures, corruption is present across all economic sectors. In 2025, serious irregularities were uncovered in several state-owned companies, including food diversion, fraud, and embezzlement.
- Brain Drain: According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), 533,000 Cubans arrived in the U.S. between October 1, 2021, and the end of fiscal year 2023.
Conclusion: A No-Easy-Exit Scenario
The multidimensional crisis Cuba faces in 2025 is the worst since the Revolution’s triumph. It is exacerbated by the U.S. embargo—rejected by 187 countries at the UN in 2024—but also by internal issues like inefficiency and corruption. Without deep structural reforms, the island will remain trapped in an economic and social spiral that severely affects its people. Unlocking Cuba’s future requires not only lifting the embargo but also implementing real changes that enable sustainable development and improve the quality of life for Cubans.
